Polls for breakfast, polls for dinner

Uncategorized 13 March 2010 0 Comments

Tiny alternate link for this article: http://tinyurl.com/ybuba2z

Opinion polls are the methodone fix for unreconstructed politics addicts between elections.  Our resident pusher is Mike Smithson, the genial and analytically astute host of http://politicalbetting.com, a site which pulls together the rumour-mill, the important political; stories of the day and opinion polls, for the important task of facilitating the lucrative political betting market.

It’s a clear sign that political punditry has become lucrative when Ladbrokes offers guest podcast appearances describing their market methodologies, and is now sponsoring the site up to the General Election.  Obviously, as a tory I am delighted that oppotunities to establish new markets have arisen from politics, and that a few might make a small packet on the proceeds of their betting.  On the other hand, like many even completely obsessed political observers and participants, I find the sheer number of disparate polls is beginning to make the job of actually tracking trends extremely complex.

Too many fucking polls

Chief culprit is YouGov’s daily political tracker in the Sun and Sunday Times; it’s confusing people because of the very short delay between completion of polling and release of data; the afternoon news cycle is often completely missed in the polls, with the inevitable outcome that the results reflect the settled view of the people polled for the day before.

To illustrate this: (click to zoom)

image

I’m simply contending that the real actual polling window when people can and will talk to pollsters on a daily basis is in the evening after work.  Polling of people will vary according to what’s on the 6 o’clock news, which may be reporting the events of the day, but won’t provide any time whatsoever for the political significance of things said and done to sink in.  In addition, I’ll contend that any polling conducted before the 6 o’clock news is useless, reflecting only the stories stuck in the polled peoples’ heads for the day before.  I’m arguing that the YouGov poll is therefore ineffective at identifying real voting intention,a nd will be taken by the panel as much more a poll on the day’s media performance by the parties.

We’ve seen this in thedramatic rise and then slump in the LibDem polling as a result of their media exposure.  Since none of our political leaders are absolutely hateful people when interviewed. any media exposure they get will be positive unless it’s a serious gaffe.  We saw this in relation to Gordon Brown’s Bullygate fiasco.  Given an opportunity to speak to people, a significant number (though still a minority) of those people will decide they like what he had to say.

Then there’s the disparity between polls.  We’re told there’ll be 10 polling companies on the election trail.  Angus Reid for Political Betting has a Conservative Lead of 13% most recently, on a day when YouGov had a lead of just 3%.  That’s a difference between an overal Conservative Majority of between 30 and 80 and a Labour domination of a Hung Parliament.  Other polls report somewhere in between.

I’ll finally contend that the betting market is the one most likely to be right on the day, partially because those people betting on the election outcome will be a much larger polling panel than any of the pollsters have yet put together.  If you really want a poll that matters before election day, it’ll be the odds at Ladbrokes.com on 5th and 6th May.  After that the betting might begin on which party Nick Clegg will convince his sandal wearing surrender-monkeys to cosy up to.

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Outsourcing the budget

Election 2010, politics 11 March 2010 1 Comment

Tiny alternate link for this article: http://tinyurl.com/yd8yqgz

Dizzy, on his as-usual spot-on blog, has made a case for conservatives to prepare for the ground-war that will accompany the budget on March 24.   His reasoning is impeccable; March 25th is the last practicable date for an announcement of a May 6th General Election.  Controlling the media and government information service until it enters purdah the next day could give the government a serious upper hand for the start of the campaign.  It’s our job to ensure that can’t happen.

Dizzy suggests a serious and effective outsourcing of the work of rapid rebuttal.  The wisdom of crowds, along with the crowd’s ability to filter erroneous information and the speed by which rapid rebuttal can work online should all be persuasive.  The big benefit to CCHQ will be, of course, that we can do it ourselves and they can decide whether or not to use it.

Let’s get stuck in.

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Racism and hating children

Europe, Racism, commerce and trade, politics 10 March 2010 1 Comment

Tiny alternate link for this article: http://tinyurl.com/y89otxs

Next week begins European Week Against Racism, a week when organisations opposed to racism host events to highlight racial prejudice and discrimination, and to celebrate the existence of societies where discrimination on the colour of a person’s skin or their ethnicity is considered unacceptable.

Normally, I mark the week by working much harder on promoting an understanding of diversity of beers in Dublin’s excellent Porterhouse bars, since the week always falls in the second half of the Rugby Six Nations.  This year, I was delighted to be asked to support the week with a bit of support in kind; I developed Ireland’s co-ordinating website, which will launch tomorrow.

Racism has always mystified me, though i know I do sometimes catch myself thinking moronic, stupid thoughts about people I sometimes encounter.  I was brought up in a deeply divided society where the personality characteristics of the other community was learned by rote in the playground,  and I suspect that the occasional brainfarts I have, which many people tell me they share, are hangovers from that.

We all judge people based on our initial findings of them, but racism, the idea that the characteristics and superiority/inferiority of an entire group of people can be ascertained in accordance with their ethnicity or the colour of their skin is a whole extra layer of stupid.  So that’s my basic injunction, and the argument I shall make to any children I may have about racism.  I’ll tell them how inefficient it is to discriminate against people, and how disregarding any person one might care to  because of their skin tone or accent is essentially a decision to not harness their talent.

I’ll point out that diversity leads to curiosity which leads to the acquisition and creation of knowledge. And finally I’ll point out that there isn’t one racist I know who isn’t also a dreadfully boring person.

And if they decide to be racist or sectarian or any analogous thing, I will stop feeding them, rent out their rooms to preferably foreign lodgers and withhold my love.  I don’t have time for stupid, boring children.

That is all.

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Geraldine Dreadful MP writes… A letter to Iain Dale on his interview with Nick Griffin MEP

Election 2010, politics, stupidity 9 March 2010 10 Comments

Tiny alternate link for this article: http://tinyurl.com/y9zoe3u

Dear ‘Gauleiter’ Dale,

I write to you as a regular reader of your Total Politics magazine, to complain in the starkest, clearest, most sincere and least obscurantist way I know how about your recent well-publicised and disgusting interview with the hated fascist would-be dictator Nick  Griffin.

Your decision to interview Nick Griffin should first of all not have been possible.  If my Private Member’s Bill ‘Fascists (Encasing in Perspex) Bill 1999′ had received support in the House of Commons and not have been laughed at by the fascist sympathising and enabling members of your party, fascists like Mr. Griffin would not be free to roam around, but instead would be placed as exhibits in museums to warn children of their fascist fascism.   Your party’s decision not to support the bill means that fascists like Mr. Griffin can be heard, are enfranchised and can exercise their freedoms, and in my view that is a bad thing for democracy.

Your interview with this hated piece of filth will undoubtedly mean thousands of disaffected people will join the BNP and destroy our country.  In addition, several hundred thousand of my constituents could be crushed in the inevitable rush to escape the vicinity of newsagents where Total Politics is sold.  I hope that you are prepared for the wave of extreme anger your decision to speak to Nick Griffin will generate, and will take responsibility in the long run for the third world war your decision to speak to the dangerous and potent political titan will undoubtedly spark.  Just yesterday I had to intervene to stop a group of anti-racist performance artists from petrol-bombing Patel’s Convenience Store on Leon Trotsky Street as a pre-emptive effort to stop him putting your interview on his shelves.

I have asked the Sickle East Women’s Anti Fascist Handcraft Co-operative to create a piece of community-inspired art to commemorate this sad day for the people of Britain, and have asked the Borough of Hammer Working Men’s Lurcher Display Team to slow handclap you if you ever visit their open-day.  In addition, a group of unemployed former Further Education lecturers has offered to follow you around until the general election with their arms folded, ready to turn their backs on you and dolefully shake their heads, occasionally murmuring ’shame’ every time you speak.

I am sorry, Iain, to have to take this extreme form of direct action against you, but your decision to speak to a man about the political views he has leaves me with no choice.  Your decision to become Nick Griffin’s Gauleiter will haunt you in the future.

Yours sincerely,

Geraldine Dreadful MP

Sickle and Hammer East

UPDATE:  Featured on Iain Dale’s website

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The Result of the General Election of 2010

Election 2010, politics 8 March 2010 0 Comments

Tiny alternate link for this article: http://tinyurl.com/y9to2oa

Conservative victory

The Conservative Party, led by David Cameron, won the 2010 General Election.  The party secured a majority of 23 seats in an election contest which turned out less close than had previously been predicted.

Controversy over election night count

Polling day for the 2010 General Election was Thursday 6th May 2010.  There was controversy as 43 constituency returning officers decided not to count the election results in their constituencies until the following day, Friday 7th May 2010.  David Cameron visited HM Queen Elizabeth II at Buckingham Palace at 4pm, later than had been the custom in recent years, and was asked by Her Majesty to form a Government, which he duly did.

Revival in Wales and North of England

Vote spread in the General Election marked a revival in the fortunes of the Conservative Party in parts of Wales and the North of England, though a straight fight between the Labour Party and the Scottish National Party limited the party’s recovery in Scotland.  An electoral pact with the Ulster Unionist Party in Northern Ireland was unsuccessful, resulting in the loss of the one Ulster Unionist Party seat in the country.

National Swing vs Marginal Swing

Whilst national opinion polling had suggested a Conservative lead of just 4% on 5 May 2010, the calculated swing to the Conservatives showed significant variance between ‘marginal’ and ’safe’ constituencies.  Conservatives in marginal constituencies gained 59 seats directly from Labour with swings of more than 9%, representing a significant margin of error for the main polling companies.   At one point on election night the BBC predicted a Labour dominance in a ‘hung parliament’, but this was not achieved.

Share of the vote

CON – 41%

LAB – 36%

LIB-DEM – 13%

UKIP – 2%

BNP – 1%

OTHERS AND NATS: 7%

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Twitter Weekly Updates for 2010-03-07

tweets 7 March 2010 0 Comments

Tiny alternate link for this article: http://tinyurl.com/ydz6mcr

  • Cameron's speech was quite brilliant, IMHO. #
  • New Nabidana.com podcast: http://nabidana.com #
  • Song for inspiration on the #ToryDoorstep: Les Jours Tristes (sung by Neil Hannon) #
  • Still devastated by the Rugby. France and Scotland for the Championship! #
  • Lord Ashcroft (Tory) agrees to pay full UK tax. Lord Paul (Labour) continues as a Non-Dom. #
  • Labour Donor Lord Paul would rather leave the Lords than pay UK tax. Lord Ashcroft has confirmed he will pay. #
  • The way in which the BBC is reporting the Ashcroft story is proof positive that the corporation needs root and branch reform. #
  • Five more years of Brown? Is that really what Labour wants? Unequivocally? Without qualification? #
  • Lakshmi Mittal – £4.125 million in donations to Labour. Reportedly a non-dom. #
  • Sir Ronald Cohen- Non dom. – £2.55 million in donations to Labour. Chair of the Social Investment Taskforce, appointed by Gordon Brown. #
  • Sir Gulam Noon – £532,826 in donations to Labour. Reportedly a non-dom. #
  • Over the past year sterling's value… has been strongly correlated with the size of the Conservative opinion poll lead (Guardian) #
  • Investors already view gilts as less than triple?A-rated assets and demand greater rewards for holding them. (FT) #
  • Gap between the interest rate Britain and Germany must pay on 10-year government debt has risen from 0.35 percentage points to 0.9 points. #
  • GDP was actually revised down, not up last week. The ONS press release headline was simply wrong. We're still in recession. #
  • Labour's poll ratings collapsing almost as fast as our currency. #
  • Labour's poll ratings now sinking slightly slower than our currency. Sterling now stabilising at $1.50 ish. #
  • Expenses claimed by Labour Non-Dom Donor Lord Swarj Paul: £281,263. Expenses claimed by Tory Non-Dom Donor Lord Ashcroft: £0.00 #
  • I know it's not Friday, but please follow my very good friend and former national student welfare officer @glenguilfoyle #
  • RIP Winston Churchill, former Conservative MP and former President of the UK National Defence Association. #
  • RT @futurefairfor Treasury dropped plans to increase tax on private equity days before two o.. http://tinyurl.com/ydbrygo #
  • I think it's unacceptable for an elected MEP to be required to apologise for anything he / she says in the Parliament. Sod Van Rompuy. #
  • RIP Michael Foot, former leader of the Labour Party, author of the 'longest suicide letter in history', the 1983 Labour Manifesto. Great man #
  • Harman destroyed by Hague in PMQs. Quite fun to watch, followed by sad news of death of former Labour leader Michael Foot. #
  • Blog Post: Conservatives should be wary of the proposed cuts to the BBC. http://tinyurl.com/ykm944y #
  • Conservative lead up one to 6% lead over Labour. Lib-dems up 3 to 19% and Labour fall one point. #
  • BLOG POST: BBC cuts should worry Conservatives http://nabidana.com/2010/03/03/proposed-cuts-to-the-bbc-should-worry-tories/ #
  • On a tourist website in Thailand: Before or after dining, our guests are always welcome to stool the beautiful beach. #
  • Fuck, when's mothers day? #
  • Even after an 8.8 earthquake, looting and the army on the streets, Chilean debt is a safer bet than the UK's. Get how bad it is yet? #
  • Trying to work out between Martina Anderson and Mary Lou McDonald is the less deft media performer. Toughie. #
  • In the brilliant Dillingers, Ranelagh. Best poached eggs ever. Amazing full breakfast. Worth a visit. Nom nom nom. #
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Proposed cuts to the BBC should worry Tories

Bbc, commerce and trade, politics 3 March 2010 2 Comments

Tiny alternate link for this article: http://tinyurl.com/ykm944y

The announcement of proposed cuts to BBC services has been overwhelmingly welcomed by commercial broadcasters and judged as too timid by many conservatives. Yet the proposed changes and the timing represent serious challenges for the Conservatives as a party, and we should be immensely wary of too wholehearted an appetite for the cuts.  Unless we want to contribute to Gordon Brown’s dividing lines strategy and alienate the entire staff of the BBC, we need to be very careful.

Broadcast wing of the welfare state

That the BBC is an institution fundamentally biased in its coverage in favour of the Labour party is established and common ground; a pseudo Marxist organisation paid for in an enormous tax, it truly is the broadcasting arm of the welfare state. It does some things exceptionally well; the nature documentaries, the provision of regional and national radio relevant to local communities etc. But it is enormous, it stifles the emergence of new media commercial broadcasters and provides a haven for daytime and weekend mediocrity.

So it must be cut. It really does need to lose lots of its fat, in order to make way for programming with real value to the people who pay for it. Out need to go the Jonathan Ross and Graham Norton phenomena. Out needs to go the commissioning bias in favour of mediocre crap just to feed the daytime schedules. Back in needs to come educational content, documentaries and adaptations of literary classics. The BBC should be unashamedly high-end, and should leave commercially viable forms of programming to those who wish to turn a profit making it.

6Music and Asian Network are not the areas to cut

But cutting BBC 6 Music and The Asian Network is a mistake, pure and simple. These channels provide outlets which simply are not available or viable for commercial or regional stations, and support the BBC’s key mission as a public broadcaster to meet the needs of the public.

The introduction of new and unknown talent to a listening audience, an enthusiastic audience who participate in the cultural life of the nation all the time is clearly a role for the national broadcaster. The 6Music brand is a brave, credible and respectable motif, a celebration of our culture and a resource for lovers of music.

Some argue that’s the role of Radio 1; isn’t it supposed to be the vibrant arm of the BBC? On some shows it is, certainly. The excellent ‘introducing…’ does some of the job of showcasing new talent, but it’s a shining beacon of a show on the station essentially dedicated to providing the national background noise. 6Music is a whole station for music lovers, and with no commercial obligations it provides an essential freedom to its broadcasters. Tories can certainly support that.

That the BBC is seriously considering scrapping the Asian Network seems even sillier to me. An inoffensive network broadcasting nationally to the varied and diverse Asian communities, it is exactly the sort of broadcasting which just wouldn’t come from a national commercial station. Asian Network particularly aims to provide quality access to radio to groups we’re too often quick to label ‘disaffected’ and ‘voiceless’. It seems to me to provide a function worthy of maintenance. It seems to me to provide a more valuable political and economic function than the execrable ‘One Show’ and provides about 700 times the value of the combined daytime TV output.

Suspect timing

I am suspicious of the timing of the announcement from the Trust.  Whilst they may have felt it was necessary to pre-empt any cuts which the future government might wish to impress upon the broadcaster, announcements like this which clearly have a whiff of political controversy about them are likely to be damaging to the impression BBC staff have of the Conservatives.   We need to be clear that these are not tory proposals, they are BBC Trust proposals.   We need to be clear that, although the direction of travel is one of which we broadly approve, the route to destination is one we should feel less than comfortable with.

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Twitter Weekly Updates for 2010-02-28

tweets 28 February 2010 0 Comments

Tiny alternate link for this article: http://tinyurl.com/y8j33wb

  • BBC News: Staff in No.10 called bullying hotline about Gordon Brown's behaviour. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/politics/8527170.stm #
  • When will Labour just admit to the rest of us what we all know? The Prime Minister is a nutter, bully, liar. #
  • Cameron has been excellently aloof from the whole bullygate. Gus O'Donnell has been very careful and narrow in his denial #
  • John Prescott being brought out to defend Gordon Brown about bullying. Anyone remember JP punching a man? #
  • John Prescott is now bullying the head of the National Bullying Helpline. Allegations of Sexual Harrassment and bullying legion about him. #
  • The Piers Morgan interview has opened Brown to questions about personality and character. #
  • Holy shit Prescott is absolutely dreadful. Describes bullying as a 'piddling allegation'. #
  • My goodness Irish politics and public life is dreary and pedestrian. #BoredOfWhereIlive #
  • Blogpost: I too am a bully. http://nabidana.com #
  • We must become the lion hearted party, ready for a fight. I know I am. #
  • Geraldine Dreadful has demanded a website all to herself. Do you think it's a good idea? #
  • Mervyn King is really beginning to assert himself. He's no friend of the Conservatives, but his intervention will hurt Brown right now. #
  • Geraldine Dreadful MP is demanding her own website and Twitter ID. What do you think? #
  • I could not date a homeopath, no matter how hot she was. Couldn't happen. #
  • Alastair Darling just admitted that he was being briefed against by Damien McBride on Jeff Randall. #
  • Darling: "The fires of hell were unleashed" Randall: "By No10?" Darling: "Not just by them, the Tories as well" #
  • Is Alastair Darling preparing himself for a challenge on Brown? Before or after the Election? #
  • Jeff Randall is proving that deficits grew even when the economy grew under Brown. #
  • Gordon brown ran up an accumulated deficit of £163 Billion in the 5 years to 2007. Alastair Darling does not refute this. #
  • Geraldine Dreadful MP finally gets her own website. http://nabidana.com/geraldine/ #
  • 90 years ago, first sitting woman MP gave her first parliamentary speech. Geraldine Dreadful will be following it with an incoherent babble. #
  • "I would never engage in divisive or partisan politics." Gordon Brown. LMAO #
  • Cameron just bullied Brown at the box. Mightily satisfying. #
  • Brown appeared to be arguing that a vote for the Tories is a vote for cancer. What a shithead. #
  • Cillit Brown. One bang and the economy is gone… (jgm2 on Guido Fawkes) #
  • On Falklands, remember UK is on the UN Security Council and a member of NATO. Therefore, Argentina can whistle. #
  • If Gordon Brown and Alistair Darling don’t like each other why the fuck did they move in next to each other? #
  • Doing setup for a conference. Have flagged a DVD with sound issues. Owner of DVD says there are no sound issues. Cue bloodbath. #
  • A reality distortion field emerges from the Labour logo. It's similar to the effect of a sillhouette of an apple with a bite missing. #
  • Lunch time in Dublin which must mean only one window open in Dublin main post office. Disgrace. #
  • In a month with so much banality and dross, Osborne's Mais Lecture was like Rachmaninoff. #
  • I have my England Rugby shirt for the weekend (in Dublin) Johnno's men by twelve points. Hooah! #
  • Hacking is happening to FB accounts, but it's phishing. David Wright's account was not hacked. #
  • Calling an election two months early whilst 5 points down in the polls (best case) is way too public spirited for this PM. #
  • Nice, I heisted Squeeze for Mac free at http://MacHeist.com #
  • NEW BLOGPOST / NEW PODCAST: Gordon Brown, Erections, The Pope and Polling Louise Bagshawe. http://tinyurl.com/y8dufwa #
  • Two nights, two curries. Only one arse. Too much information? #
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Podcast February 2010 – Dude, where’s my lead?

Uncategorized 28 February 2010 1 Comment

Tiny alternate link for this article: http://tinyurl.com/y8dufwa

Is Gordon Brown a Bully whose temper is problematic for the staff surrounding him?  Will the sun rise tomorrow?  Does a bear shit in the woods?  Is the pope a catholic?

In addition, the forces of hell, erections and Louise Bagshawe gives up on writing about hard polling.  (Some of this might not be in the podcast)

Links mentioned in the podcast:

Mike Smithson’s excellent Political Betting website, http://politicalbetting.com

Getting the podcast

This podcast is available on iTunes (http://itunes.apple.com/ie/podcast/nabidana-com/id349247817)  and here on the site.

M4A link – Itunes and Mac Friendly direct stream  Podcast Feb 2010 – Dude, where’s my lead?

MP3 link – plays in a flash player on the site ?

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Nabidana podcast coming soon

podcast, politics 27 February 2010 1 Comment

Tiny alternate link for this article: http://tinyurl.com/yhdqhv4

I’m watching the rugby today, and as Ireland’s most obnoxiously proud England supporter, despite having been born in Londonderry, brought up in Co. Down and educated at the Royal Belfast Academical Institution,(whose former head coach is now the Ulster Rugby coach), I am not allowed out of the house as I refuse to remove my England shirt.

So I’m sat in with my MacBook Pro and Garageband, waiting for Tesco, which should be delivering a frankly ridiculous quantity of beer soon.  The result is likely to be a podcast, on its way hopefully before the kick-off at Twickenham.  It’ll be available as usual on iTunes and the site.

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